Work in progress

Privileging one’s own? Voting patterns and politicized spending in India
(with Pradeep Chhibber)

When and how do politicians manipulate the allocation of public resources? We argue that politicians’ choices are influenced by the type of networks that bring them to power. Politicians from parties closely linked to strong social networks (embedded parties) face pressures to allocate resources to members of that network even when this is electorally inefficient. Politicians from parties without such ties (non-embedded parties) are less constrained. We provide evidence for this using an original polling station (precinct) level dataset, linking voting patterns in the 2009 Indian general election to the characteristics of some 234,000 census villages and to project allocations 2009–14 under India’s discretionary constituency development scheme (MPLADS). The mechanisms underpinning the observed patterns are explored through a natural experiment created by the implementation of new electoral boundaries in 2008. The findings contribute to our understanding of when and why we observe different forms of manipulation of public resources by politicians.

Effects of Sexual Misconduct Training on University Campuses (with Carlos Contreras, Melanie Sayuri Dominguez, Mala Htun, Justine Tinkler)

What are the effects of sexual misconduct training on college campuses? As the #metoo movement grows, public and private organizations around the world are exploring training and other policy mechanisms to combat sexual assault and harassment. This paper examines the effects of mandatory, in-person training on sexual misconduct for students at a diverse university in the Southwest of the US. Drawing on three studies— two with a quasi-experimental and one with an experimental design—and interviews with students and staff, we explore the effects of the training on attitudes towards rape myths, gender stereotypes, and expressed willingness to report of episodes of violence. We find that students who undergo the training gain a more nuanced perspective on what constitutes sexual misconduct and are less likely to endorse common rape myths, especially men. However, the training also made students more likely to express some traditional gender stereotypes and less likely—particularly women—to say they would report incidents of sexual assault. Concluding with reflections on the reasons for the counter-productive effects, this paper has implications for the design of institutional responses to sexual misconduct.

Party system institutionalization and economic voting: Evidence from India (with Pavithra Suryanarayan)
It is well established that countries’ institutional features can weaken economic voting by diffusing responsibility for policy outcomes. We argue that local-level party system institutionalization similarly mediates the link between the economy and vote choice. We focus on one dimension of party system institutionalization: the strength of party-candidate linkages in elections, measured by manually tracing the rerunning patterns of some 80,000 candidates in Indian state elections 1986–2007. Using rerunning patterns to measure party-candidate linkages and rainfall data to measure the state of the economy, we show that voters are more likely to reward incumbent parties for economic performance when parties and candidates are aligned in consecutive elections. We address concerns of endogeneity in rerunning patterns by showing that the results are robust to alternate measures of local-level party system institutionalization. They are also robust to alternative measures of the state of the economy, and using individual-level survey data.

Age of Marriage and Women’s Political Engagement: Evidence from India (with Fenella Carpena)
Although decades have passed since most women in the democratic world gained the right to vote and run for elections, a large gender gap in political participation persists today, particularly in developing democracies. This short paper considers an important—and heretofore overlooked—factor limiting the political engagement of many women in the developing world: her age of marriage. Drawing on nationally representative data from India and instrumenting marriage age with menarche age, we find substantial positive effects of delaying marriage on women’s participation in everyday politics. A standard deviation increase in marriage age makes a woman 36.2 percent more likely to attend a village meeting, and 6.2 percent more likely discusses politics with her husband. Exploring mechanisms, we show that education and time—rather than employment and mobility—are the main channels of impact. These findings underscore the importance of early marriage as a critical barrier to women’s participation in the political sphere.

Missing girls: women’s education and sex ratios in India (Pradeep Chhibber and Susan Ostermann)
Sex ratios in India have been declining for decades, and missing girls are a serious social, political, and economic problem. Drawing on more disaggregated, comprehensive and recent data than that used in previous work, we show that increases in women’s literacy are strongly associated with declining child sex ratios in India. However, this overall relationship masks two countervailing trends. Educated mothers give birth to fewer daughters (lower female natality), but they also seem to be treating their daughters better (higher girl survival). These findings have important implications for the design of policies to combat declining sex ratios worldwide.

Electoral Switching in Indian Elections (with Pavithra Suryanarayan)
This paper focuses on an understudied aspect of party system institutionalization: the strength and stability of linkages between parties and candidates. Using original data on rerunning patterns of candidates across 3,872 constituencies in 26 Indian states 1974–2007, we look at an important manifestation of weak party-candidate linkages: candidates switching parties from one election to the next. In this paper, we seek to describe and explain the great variation in electoral switching across the Indian states. Whereas parties and candidates face incentives to change alliances opportunistically in response to short-term factors such as a weak economy, we should expect more such behavior in contexts of weakly organized parties and weak party-voter linkages. We provide evidence for this by using constituency-level estimates of the organizational capacity of parties, the intensity of social cleavages, and economic shocks. Our findings suggest that electoral switching is a useful micro-level measures of party system institutionalization.

Violence Against Women as a Violation of Human Rights: Legal Change and Social Norms in Mexico (with Mala Htun)
One of the central achievements of the feminist movement has been the codification, in international law and the domestic legislation of many societies, of the notion that violence against women (VAW) constitutes a violation of human rights. To what extent has this normative and cultural shift taken root in society? In this paper, we examine whether and how the law has been associated with changes in social norms related to intimate partner violence in Mexico. The country has taken action on VAW at both federal and state levels, and adopted a comprehensive legal regime in 2007. Drawing on four waves of the national survey on the Dynamics of Household Relations (ENDIREH, 2003, 2006, 2011, 2016), we examine trends in experiences, reporting and attitudes surrounding physical domestic abuse. The data are consistent with extensive changes in social norms: there has been a clear reduction in the share of women suffering from violence at the hands of their partners, and an increase in how many of them report these violations. The biggest changes, however, are in attitudes. As time goes on, far fewer women say that a man has the right to hit his partner, that a woman must obey her spouse, or that the violence she has experienced is ‘unimportant’. Our findings suggest that laws on gender violence, and the feminist mobilization surrounding these laws, have triggered significant social changes that may over time lead to greater reductions in violence.

Forging Ikumen in Japan: On state efforts to change gender roles (with Mala Htun and Melanie Sayuri Sonntag)
To raise the birth rate and promote women’s advancement, the Japanese state has adopted policies and programs to change gender roles, including the ‘ikumen’—or active father—project. Drawing on surveys conducted 2000-14 and three dozen interviews, we demonstrate changes in attitudes about gender roles and men’s contributions, but little change to working habits and the sexual division of labor. State efforts have produced only an “incomplete revolution,” as economic, social, and legal institutions continue to encourage traditional gender roles. However, our study offers grounds for optimism, as the change in attitudes indicates that new gender roles have gained some legitimacy.

Keeping women out: Incumbency and renomination patterns for female politicians in India

While village-level quotas in India have brought hundreds of thousands of women to power in local politics, only 4.6% of the Members of Parliament (MPs) and 4.7% of the Members of Legislative Assemblies (MLAs) in India have been women since 1961. Using a complete, new dataset of the more than 500,000 candidates in Indian state assembly and parliamentary elections 1961-2015, including almost 25,000 female candidates, I show that female candidates tend to do as well as male candidates in the elections where they run. Controlling for differences in candidate quality by using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) of close elections between male and female candidates, I also show that parties tend to re-nominate fewer of their female than their male incumbents and runner-ups. The findings indicate that it is party bias and a hostile political environment rather than voters bias that has made the inclusion of women in Indian politics so slow.

Comparative Analysis for Theory Development (with Mala Htun)
In this chapter, we identify five misperceptions about comparative research design that we have encountered among our students and which are likely to be more widely held. These misperceptions pertain to the goal, nature, logic, and justifications of comparative research design, and include the belief that the primary goal of comparative research is to test theories; that a research project has to have only one, static, research design; that all qualitative projects must be shoe-horned into a narrow understanding of a “case study”; that theory primarily derives from epiphanies, identifying holes in existing literature, or close scrutiny of single experiences or cases; and that it is “unscientific” to take personal or practical concerns into account when choosing what to study.

Time in office and the Changing Gender Gap in Dishonesty: Evidence from Local Politics in India (with Ananish Chaudhuri, Vegard Iversen, and Pushkar Maitra)
Increasing the share of women in politics is regularly promoted as a means of reducing corruption. In this paper, we look for evidence of a gender gap in dishonesty among elected representatives, as well as how this changes with time in office. Based on a sample of 356 inexperienced and experienced local politicians in West Bengal, India, we combine survey data on attitudes towards corruption with data from incentivized experiments. While we find little evidence of a gender gap in the attitudes of inexperienced politicians, a lower faith in political institutions and a greater distaste for corruption can be seen among experienced politicians, particularly women. However, this seeming hardening in attitudes among female politicians also coincides with more dishonest behavior in our experiments. Exploring mechanisms for this difference, we find it to be strongly associated with lower risk aversion. Our study indicates that gender gaps in politics should be theorized as dynamic and changing, rather than static.

Electoral Importance and Media Consumption: Quasi-experimental Evidence and New Data from India (with Julia Cagé and Guilhem Cassan)
What are the determinants of news media consumption? In this paper, we investigate whether it is determined by political motives. We build a new panel dataset on Indian publications at the city level between 2002 and 2017. We exploit the 2008 delimitation of the Assembly Constituencies, an exogenous change in the electoral importance of cities across India, to causally identify the relationship between relative electoral importance and news media consumption. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we compare change in the supply and demand of news in cities whose electoral importance increased compared to cities whose electoral importance did not. We show that media markets whose electoral importance increases see an increase in their total newspaper circulation per capita. We discuss how this political motive can be decomposed into media supply and media demand.